I started this blog on 12 March. Unfortunately it was crossposted to the wrong Medium account. So I am going to catch up this account with several old posts each day until it’s up to date as today is day 54, 4 May, of the Pandemic. There is useful information in these posts and it’s also interesting to see the projections and the progressions.
CDC is reporting 1,215 cases of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19/Coronavirus. Pick your name. The first is the technical one. The latter is what everyone is calling it, but its misleading because there are at least four other coronaviruses, that are rather different. Regardless.
Does it seem silly to chronicle this? Perhaps. But things will get forgotten as time goes on. I think two months from now we will look back on the way we’re acting now and wonder: how stupid and naive were we?
First, the numbers: Ridiculous. We’ve barely tested a percentage of population. The president keeps lying about testing. They turned down WHO’s offer of tests almost two months ago and no one knows why, but my suspicion is the president simply wanted to keep the numbers down. Just the other day he publicly admitted he didn’t want to let people off a cruise ship because they’d double the numbers.
We’re at the very beginning of this while it seems China is coming to the end. So we’re looking at a two month, if not more, worsening.
I told my wife that while the virus is definitely a threat, I’m equally worried about the ripple effect in society. Most people are very unaware how tenuous our supply lines are. I remember watching Contagion years ago and my impression was it was well done, except it under-estimated the societal fragmenting and disintegration that would occur.
I hope we don’t see it, but I fear we will.
Two weeks ago, Italy had 322 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2. Now they have 10,149. Doctors are triaging treatment.
Here’s the dark storm on the horizon based on the numbers I’ve seen from reputable sources: 40–70% of people will be exposed to the virus. It has at least a 1% mortality rate if not higher. Let’s go with the low end of both numbers.
As of the 2010 census there are 308,745,538 Americans. It’s higher now but let’s use that.
308,745,538 time the low end of exposure, 40%, time 1%, equals: 1,234,982 fatalities.
I think that’s enough sobering possibilities for today. Talk to ya tomorrow.
BTW: Stuff Doesn’t Just Happen: The Gift of Failure is free today. Perhaps some day, someone analyze this pandemic
Originally published at https://bobmayer.com.